Frances Moore on Modeling Climate Politics
On this episode of Free Range, Mike Livermore speaks with Frances Moore, a Professor of Environmental Science and Policy at UC Davis whose work focuses on climate economics. Recently, Moore was the lead author of a paper in Nature that examines an important set of feedbacks between politics and the climate system. The discussion begins by examining the key differences between the model development by Moore and her team and other approaches.
Episode is an appropriate teaching tool for but not limited to the following topics & courses: Economics, politics, climate modeling
Discussion Questions
- How does Moore characterize current climate modeling’s treatment of emissions pathways? What does her model do differently?
- What are some key feedbacks between the climate, social, political, and energy systems that Moore believes are important to model endogenously?
- Why does Moore argue probabilistically constraining emissions scenarios could be useful for adaptation planning? Do you agree?
- What factors contribute to higher emissions scenarios in the model, according to Moore? Which concern you most?
- How does Moore describe the potential tension between individual pro-climate behaviors versus collective action? When can individual actions matter?
- What does Livermore identify as a key weakness in the model’s treatment of climate impacts and governance capacity? How might this be incorporated?
- How does Moore characterize the philosophical differences between her model, Nordhaus’ DICE model, and the IPCC modeling approach?
- What challenges exist in integrating qualitative social science insights into quantitative computational models like Moore’s?
- Why does Moore argue descriptive rather than prescriptive modeling is important for understanding emissions trajectories?
- What key metric does Moore suggest watching to see if optimistic model projections bear out over the next 5-10 years?
- How might insights from climate economics and modeling inform environmental law and policy? What connections do you see?
Additional Readings
- Moore, Frances. “Guest Post: How to model society’s response to climate change.” Carbon Brief (Feb. 25, 2022).
- Moore, F.C., Lacasse, K., Mach, K.J. et al. Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system. Nature 603, 103–111 (2022).
- William Nordhaus, “Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change,” NEBR Reporter No. 3 (Sep. 2017). (helps to explain Nordhaus’ DICE model)
- Peng, W. et al. Climate policy models need to get real about people—here’s how. Nature 594, 174–176 (2021).
- Daniel Baer and Noah J. Gordon, “Better Climate Models Would Build in Political and Personal Decisions,” The Washington Post (Aug. 25, 2022).
- Achakulwisut, P., Erickson, P., Guivarch, C. et al. Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions. Nat Commun 14, 5425 (2023).
- Metcalf, Gilbert E., Five Myths About Carbon Pricing, Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research – Working Paper (April 2023).
- Otto, M. Ilona et al., Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050, PNAS 117 (5) 2354-2365 (Jan. 21, 2020).
Free Range Podcast 